{ "method": "Tide phase is the NOAA Newport astronomical prediction change over the 2h centered on the selected one-hour mean residual maximum; positive = incoming tide. Dry controls use +/-30 days same UTC onset time, excluding SNA rain >0.01in on previous/current/next UTC dates, with adequate UC coverage. Maxima are selected in both wet and dry cases; controls overlap and are not independent. One-hour UC residuals use matched NOAA predictions.", "wetEvents": [ { "event": "2025-11-15", "sustainedPulse": true, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": 8.79, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 5.878, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-15T13:00:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 18.97, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 13.704, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-15T14:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.0 }, { "event": "2025-11-21", "sustainedPulse": true, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": 14.646, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 5.595, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-21T15:15:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 15.35, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 12.825, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-21T17:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.75 }, { "event": "2025-12-24", "sustainedPulse": true, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": 13.388, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 5.006, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-24T17:00:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 9.43, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 12.468, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-24T19:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 2.0 }, { "event": "2025-12-26", "sustainedPulse": false, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": null, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.468, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-27T02:25:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 9.45, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -9.251, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-27T08:20:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 5.92 }, { "event": "2026-01-01", "sustainedPulse": false, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": null, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.905, "peakCenterUTC": "2026-01-01T12:50:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 16.22, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 21.254, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2026-01-01T15:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 2.17 }, { "event": "2026-02-11", "sustainedPulse": false, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": null, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.231, "peakCenterUTC": "2026-02-11T11:20:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 1.45, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 5.472, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2026-02-11T13:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.67 }, { "event": "2026-02-16/17", "sustainedPulse": false, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": null, "peakOneHourRiseInches": -0.198, "peakCenterUTC": "2026-02-16T21:20:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 0.45, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -24.352, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2026-02-17T03:15:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 5.92 }, { "event": "2026-04-12", "sustainedPulse": false, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": null, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.096, "peakCenterUTC": "2026-04-13T01:50:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 10.58, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 8.004, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2026-04-13T03:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.17 }, { "event": "2026-10-22", "sustainedPulse": false, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": null, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.049, "peakCenterUTC": "2026-10-22T03:05:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 2.7, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -13.232, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2026-10-22T03:05:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "event": "2026-11-01", "sustainedPulse": true, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeAtPulseStartInches": 12.528, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 4.502, "peakCenterUTC": "2026-11-01T10:55:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 7.8, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 6.894, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2026-11-01T12:05:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.17 } ], "matchedDryControlSummary": { "n": 421, "fractionPeakOnIncomingTide": 0.513, "nRiseAtLeast2Inches": 199, "fractionIncomingGivenRiseAtLeast2": 0.503, "nRiseAtLeast4Inches": 8, "nRiseAtLeast4OnIncomingTide": 0 }, "strongWetSummary": { "n": 4, "nPeakOnIncomingTide": 4, "hoursPeakBeforeHigh": [ 1.0, 1.75, 2.0, 1.17 ] }, "sanc1CampusDriveStageCheck": { "dryOctober24to30UTC": { "n": 2013, "stageFeetRange": [ 5.7, 6.86 ], "predictedTideFeetRange": [ -0.84, 6.65 ], "stageVsPredictedTideCorrelation": 0.101 }, "rainNovember1UTC": { "n": 286, "stageFeetRange": [ 5.8, 9.51 ], "predictedTideFeetRange": [ -0.09, 4.95 ], "stageVsPredictedTideCorrelation": 0.726 } }, "dryControlsByWetEvent": [ { "event": "2025-11-15", "controls": [ { "offsetDays": -10, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.751, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-05T16:25:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 22.38, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -8.079, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-05T16:25:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -9, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.386, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-06T16:35:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 22.55, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 0.003, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-06T17:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.42 }, { "offsetDays": -8, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 4.783, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-07T18:25:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 24.38, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -17.761, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-07T18:25:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -7, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.611, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-07T18:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 0.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -19.014, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-07T18:30:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -6, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.612, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-08T18:45:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 0.72, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -9.468, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-08T18:45:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -5, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.649, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-10T09:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 15.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 5.274, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-10T10:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.5 }, { "offsetDays": -4, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.393, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-11T14:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 20.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -4.206, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-11T20:25:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 5.92 }, { "offsetDays": -3, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.463, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-12T14:40:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 20.63, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -9.044, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-12T14:40:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -2, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.418, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-13T13:25:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 19.38, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -1.371, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-13T13:25:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -1, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.736, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-14T14:00:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 19.97, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -2.58, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-14T14:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": 4, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.026, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-19T04:15:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 10.22, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 4.173, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-19T05:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.75 }, { "offsetDays": 5, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.599, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-20T15:20:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 21.3, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 8.704, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-20T16:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.67 }, { "offsetDays": 9, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.979, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-24T16:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 22.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 10.278, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-24T18:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.5 }, { "offsetDays": 10, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.809, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-25T18:10:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 24.13, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 4.472, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-25T19:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.83 }, { "offsetDays": 11, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.06, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-25T18:45:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 0.72, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 1.056, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-25T19:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.25 }, { "offsetDays": 12, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.969, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-27T07:35:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 13.55, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 16.14, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-27T12:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 4.42 }, { "offsetDays": 13, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.288, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-27T18:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 0.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 6.108, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-27T21:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 2.5 }, { "offsetDays": 14, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.69, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-29T12:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 18.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 1.44, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-29T13:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.5 }, { "offsetDays": 15, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.952, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-30T13:10:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 19.13, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -0.258, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-30T13:10:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": 16, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.425, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-01T00:40:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 6.63, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 7.872, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-01T02:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.33 }, { "offsetDays": 17, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.225, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-02T12:55:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 18.88, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 18.272, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-02T14:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.08 }, { "offsetDays": 18, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 3.123, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-03T12:10:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 18.13, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 28.672, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-03T15:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 2.83 }, { "offsetDays": 19, "peakOneHourRiseInches": -0.744, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-04T12:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 18.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 28.83, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-04T16:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 3.5 }, { "offsetDays": 20, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.892, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-05T16:50:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 22.8, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -8.792, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-05T16:50:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": 21, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.079, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-06T17:35:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 23.55, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -7.774, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-06T17:35:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": 22, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.652, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-06T18:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 0.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -22.074, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-06T18:30:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": 23, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.591, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-07T18:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 0.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -8.292, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-07T18:30:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": 24, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.918, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-09T08:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 14.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 8.196, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-09T09:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.5 }, { "offsetDays": 25, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.49, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-10T09:55:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 15.88, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 4.627, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-10T11:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.08 }, { "offsetDays": 26, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.235, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-11T11:40:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 17.63, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -1.44, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-11T11:40:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": 27, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.447, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-12T10:15:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 16.22, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 14.904, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-12T12:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.75 }, { "offsetDays": 28, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.444, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-13T08:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 14.47, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 17.154, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-13T13:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 4.5 }, { "offsetDays": 29, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.893, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-14T10:35:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 16.55, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 18.599, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-14T13:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 2.42 }, { "offsetDays": 30, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.216, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-12-15T12:25:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 18.38, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 13.083, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-12-15T14:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 1.58 } ] }, { "event": "2025-11-21", "controls": [ { "offsetDays": -16, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.053, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-05T16:25:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 16.52, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -8.079, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-05T16:25:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -15, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 3.127, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-06T16:35:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 16.68, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 0.003, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-06T17:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.42 }, { "offsetDays": -14, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 4.787, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-07T18:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 18.6, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -19.014, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-07T18:30:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -13, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.408, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-08T08:55:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 9.02, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -8.765, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-08T14:50:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 5.92 }, { "offsetDays": -12, "peakOneHourRiseInches": -0.561, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-09T10:45:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 10.85, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -5.499, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-09T16:40:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 5.92 }, { "offsetDays": -11, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.896, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-10T09:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 9.6, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": 5.274, "incomingTideAtPeak": true, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-10T10:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.5 }, { "offsetDays": -10, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.539, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-11T14:30:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 14.6, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -4.206, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-11T20:25:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 5.92 }, { "offsetDays": -9, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 1.752, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-12T14:40:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 14.77, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -9.044, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-12T14:40:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -8, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 2.205, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-13T13:25:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 13.52, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -1.371, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-13T13:25:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -7, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 3.597, "peakCenterUTC": "2025-11-14T14:00:00+00:00", "peakLagHours": 14.1, "predictedTideTwoHourChangeInches": -2.58, "incomingTideAtPeak": false, "nextPredictedHighUTC": "2025-11-14T14:00:00+00:00", "hoursFromPeakToNextHigh": 0.0 }, { "offsetDays": -2, "peakOneHourRiseInches": 0.764, "peakCenterUTC": 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